On The Way of Being Climate Refugees

The Challenge is

Even Bigger

Husain Imam

THE present non-political caretaker government, that came to power on January 11, 2007, under emergency rules apparently with the objective of setting things right for a free, fair and credible election, and transition to a sustainable democracy, has been since then treading through a hazardous path to reach that goal. They have a road map to march on, and have so far covered two-thirds of an arduous journey along the declared road map without much trouble, thanks to the emergency rules. But now they have reached a stage from where they might find the road ahead much harder and trickier than they could possibly think.
They are now holding dialogues with the political parties to pave the way for the much- awaited national election by the 3rd week of December this year, as promised by Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed, the chief of the caretaker government, in his latest televised address to the nation.
The election has to be credible and acceptable to all at home and abroad and, at the same time, the winner in that election has to be a party that will ensure if possible, continuity of the measures they have undertaken for good or bad during their rule. How far they will succeed in their mission, nobody can say for sure.
What can, however, be said for sure is that the country is passing through very hard times. With the scarcity of rice and wheat world over, soaring prices of essential commodities and food items that have reached a level far beyond the buying capacity of more than half the population of the country, abnormally high prices of crude oil in the international market ($130 per barrel), crises of electricity and water, lack of employment opportunities, political instability, rise of Islamic militancy — all added together — the country with per capita income as low as a dollar and a quarter per day is facing a big challenge.
The topic I am more interested to discuss here may prove an even bigger challenge for Bangladesh in the not so distant future in terms of a nation’s history. That is about climate change because of global warming.
According to recently published research reports of world scientists, environmentalists and climate experts, it is now proven beyond doubt that greenhouse gas emission (GHGE), caused primarily due to burning of fossil fuel in the mills, factories and vehicles has direct link with global warming, in turn, with negative effects of climate change.
Because of greenhouse gas emission, the world is warming up, glaciers are melting, the sea level is rising, and the world climate is changing — all at a faster rate than ever before.
Whereas industrialised and developed countries like America, Europe, Canada Japan, Australia, now joined by India and China, are primarily responsible for the GHGE, the worst sufferers are the underdeveloped countries.
The way world temperature is rising because of GHGE, if no effective measures are taken right now for substantial reduction of GHGE rate, the dry and the low level areas of the world, especially regions in Africa and Asia, will be visited by natural calamities like floods, cyclones, tidal waves, droughts, desertification, rise of sea level, etc., more frequently and severely than ever before.
As a result, food security, housing problems, availability of drinking water, in fact the entire economic and social harmony of these countries, will be in jeopardy.
The reason for Bangladesh to be more concerned about global warming is that, according to the available reports (on climate change), Bangladesh and Maldives are two countries that will be worst affected because of global warming.
Cyclone Sidr, that hit Bangladesh on November 15, 2007 and caused havoc to its south western coastal belt, and then cyclone Nargis of May 3, another severe tropical storm appearing in the vicinity in less than 6 months time, might as well be taken as a red-alert for the governments and the people of this region to get into the serious business of dealing with the consequence of the alarming climate change due to global warming.
According to experts, if the pace at which the world temperature is rising at the moment continues unchecked, by 2050 nearly one-fifth of Bangladesh will go under the sea. As a result, besides acute food crisis, at least 20 million people will lose their habitations and become climate refugees, which will cause serious threats to the peace and stability of the country. At present, our population density is 1000 plus per square kilometer, enough to cause problems of food and housing.
If the population growth rate of Bangladesh remains as it is, and global warming continues unabated, by 2050 we will have 300 million people to live in just about a 120,000 sq kilometers area (reduced due to sea level rise), increasing the country’s population density to 2500 or more per square kilometer.
Imagine the situation. Because of rise of sea level, the area of agriculture land is shrinking. Population is increasing. People are cutting forests or using agricultural land to settle their housing needs, making less and less land available for food production. Because of deforestation, the climatic effects are becoming more and more acute.
So grave and ominous being the situation, it is high time for our governments, our planners and the policy makers to adopt comprehensive plans for 50 years or so, which may include, among others, building of higher and stronger embankments along the coastal belt of the country, construction of sufficient number of strongly built multi-purpose cyclone shelters for both human beings and livestock, and growing of extensive mangrove forests along the seashores.
It is also high time we joined hands with other least developed countries in gearing up the movement to compel the industrially developed countries not only to make substantial reduction of gas emission but also to bear the costs of aforesaid projects as compensation.
More importantly, it is high time we at home gave more attention and priority to increasing production of food grains and agricultural products, controlling population growth and stopping deforestation.
It is imperative that we make a habit of planting trees around our houses, do not leave any land uncultivated, change our food habits, and provide proper education to our children so that they can become a skilled and efficient manpower capable enough to face the challenges.

This has also been published here in The Daily Star.

Glory United

What Unification?

This may appear as a misdirection for all BNP supporters-activists force as well as the whole nation, if our thinkers seem to be convinced by the ultra-recurrence of “unification call” by so called reformists. Some mysteriously compromised leaders as Hafizuddin, Z.A. Khan, Mahbubur Rahman (I know it sounds yawning, but here some ex-Generals are being led by an ex-Major) are showing no sign of fatigue in their efforts of unification. They sound like Bangladesh Nationalist Party is divided into some thousands of fragments & need to be unified by some superstitious gum or something. But I just don’t understand what these people are trying to unify? Why they use the term ‘unify’? I have heard A.S.M Hannan Shah to use this word too. When you have no division in the party, then how can you unify it? Can the Hafiz-gang be called as respectable ‘part’ of the party? They just have some leaders those are illustrious by no mean. They don’t have any supporter. They don’t have anything new to say. They call themselves reformists but have no clear conception that how the reformation may go. They have a decreasing numbers of men in the cult, some are leaving the country, some are surrendering to court etc. Why somebody should call them a party or as a part of the party? You can track its justifications down reading the example below.

We all know Bangladesh is a declared arc-rival of RAW (it ain’t a fun, check this link out then know more about it). Suppose a Bangladeshi citizen has defected to India for some unknown reasons. He made irrational statements against the state administrators and then took shelter in the Indian Embassy where he feels it’s safe. Then he is transported to India arranging a political asylum. That dissident Bangladeshi, suppose after some months or years of living a gross life in some RAW incubator, he has thought there is something wrong in India, at least he no more likes to be there. Now, if he desires to come back to Bangladesh, should he ask for a “unifying call” to Bangladesh government? How will this sound like? He is just a citizen who has once deceived what Bangladesh has offered him, now he thinks he was wrong so he desires to come back. Can this be called a “unification”? I was never a part of Bangladesh government, but I can ask questions to people who are running this government towards somewhere. What do you think Sirs? Would you accept that person to come back under a process named “unification”? I must say Sir you wouldn’t. You would have asked him to beg apology and then you would let him come back. Isn’t it? Now we must consider that this would be thing that you should do in that circumstance.

[I could bring examples from a thousands of such affairs of Cold War era, but I have pulled this because I think this much reflects the relation of India & Bangladesh, as much as the commotion into it caused by recent Jaipur bombings]

So, why should the BNP leadership accept the comeback of Hafiz-gang as“unification”? Today D. Emazuddin has said the adamancy of Khandoker Delwar Hussain can damage the nationalist force of Bangladesh. I never have a shred of lack of respect on D. Emazuddin. But here I must say he has misunderstood the situation. Hundreds of men those accompanied Hafiz to BNP office on 13 November last year and some others who often come to Hafiz’s home with some flowers to congratulate Hafiz for his ‘great deeds’, have been pretended as BNP supporters. Bangladesh is the seventh most populated country of the world. Here, the average price of people’s time & labor is extremely low. It wasn’t a big deal even it’s never a big deal for Hafiz or anybody to create a crowd like that. Lots of unemployed people won’t miss the chance to get paid in exchange of just smiley appearances before the press and video cameras. That’s what happened in BNP office in November last year after the ban on indoor politics was lifted, that’s what now happens at Hafiz’s home (sometimes Mannan’s home too especially at the court during his surrender). Now, this obviously over-estimates the position of Hafiz if we pretend those paid crowds to be BNP activists. They were by no mean BNP supporters. So, when some party-leaders, who deceived the party rules once and tried to show the party divided by showing down with paid crowd, can they be back to the party without begging apology? Never they can. Khandoker Delwar Hussain has asked for less. He has just asked to declare the 29 Octobers meeting as ineffective. Khandoker Delwar should have asked them to beg apology. I want to state to D. Emazuddin and all of men and women who concern about the present situation of BNP and overall Bangladesh politics, what Khandoker Delwar Hussain is doing now, is not irrational adamancy, this is what he should do, this is what convinces us that he was the right choice.

Ei Shomoy

Quotes:

“আজ হোসেন জিল্লুর রহমান এই যে সাংবাদিকদের প্রশ্ন করতে দিলেন না, আমি বলব এই আচরণের মাঝে অগণতান্ত্রিকতা আছে, স্বৈরাচারিতা আছে। এবং বক্তব্য বিষয়ের উপর আর কোন প্রশ্ন আশার পথকে রুদ্ধ করার এই প্রচেষ্টা দ্বারা বোঝা যায়, বক্তব্যদাতা নিতান্তই ক্ষমতাহীন, দূর্বল এবং আংশিক বা সম্পূর্ণ রূপেই অজ্ঞ, আমি অন্তত তাই মনে করি।”

[“The press briefing where Hossain Zillur Rahman didn’t allow the press to ask any questions, I must say, there is a sign of autocratic tendency in this kind of behaviour. And in this ill will of barring the press to quiz, this indicates that the spokesperson definitely is a powerless, partly or completely unaware of facts and they are just errand people, at least I think it to be so.”]

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“আমি এমনিতে ঠাট্টা করেই বলতে চাই, আগামী সরকার, মানে এই সরকারের পরের সরকারের অর্থমন্ত্রী যিনি হবেন, তিনি যে অর্থমন্ত্রী হয়েছেন, এটা তার নিজের পাপের ফল, তার বাপের পাপের ফল, তার দাদারও পাপের ফল, সর্বোপরি এটা তার চোদ্দ গুষ্টির পাপের ফল যে তাকে ঐ পরিস্থিতিতে একজন অর্থমন্ত্রী হতে হয়েছে।”

[“Satirically, the person who will become the Minister of Finance of the next cabinet, his being the minister will be the punishment of his own sins, his father’s sins and his grandfather’s sins. Ultimately it will be a punishment of the sins of his whole fourteen generations that he has to be the Minister of Finance at predecessor cabinet of the present one.”]

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“নির্বাচন কমিশনার সাহেবরা সাংবাদিকদের বলেছেন যেন কেন্দ্রীয়ভাবে ফলপ্রকাশের আগে মিডিয়া কোন ফল প্রকাশ না করে। তারা আরও আইন করে রেখেছেন যে যেকোন মুহুর্তে যেকোন কারণে তারা যেকোন প্রার্থীর প্রার্থীতা বাতিল করতে পারেন। তার উপর দেশে চলছে জরুরী অবস্থা। এতে তো স্পষ্টই বোঝা যাচ্ছে বর্তমান সরকার এই অনুগত এবং চাকুরিজীবি মনোভাবাপন্ন নির্বাচন কমিশনারদের সহায়তায় নির্বাচনের ফলাফল পরিবর্তনের মানসিক প্রস্তুতি নিয়ে রেখেছেন”

[“Election commissioners want the media not to publish the election results until it ain’t published by the EC itself. They have also made some rules that they, at any condition, for any reason and at any moment, can cancel the candidacy of any candidates anywhere they want. On the other hand there remains a state of emergency. This is crystal clear that the present government, with a loyal EC is in the way of manufacturing the election results in the way it wants”]

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“গত কয়েকদিন যাবত আওয়ামীলীগের নেতাদের নানান বক্তব্য শুনে আমার মনে হয়েছে, এ বুঝি কোন সরকারী দলের নেতারা কথা বলছেন। সরকারের মতই উৎসাহের সাথে তারা সবাইকে নির্বাচনে যাবার আহবান জানাচ্ছেন এবং সরকারের মতই জোর দিয়ে ১৮ই ডিসেম্বারে নির্বাচন হবে বলে হুংকার দিয়ে যাচ্ছেন।”

[“Statements of Awami League leaders for last couple of days is sounding like a ruling party is saying those words. They are making calls to other political parties as the regime is doing, they are expressing their stubborn resolution that the election will take place and must take place on December 18, just as the regime is doing”]

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“কিছু উপদেষ্টারা কথায় কথায় বলে থাকেন, রাজনীতির গুণগত উত্তরণের জন্য রাজনীতিবিদদের আরও দায়িত্মবান হওয়া প্রয়োজন। কিন্তু তারা মূল সত্যটিই উপলব্ধি করতে পারছেননা যে রাজনীতির গুণগত উত্তরণের জন্য সবার আগে বর্তমান সরকারের বিদায় প্রয়োজন।”

[“Some advisers cite this constantly that politicians should act more responsibly to bail out from the present political stalemate. But they are not realizing the most unbreakable truth that their departure is the breakthrough to bail out of the stalemate”]

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“সরকার যেমন নিজেদের অবস্থান স্পষ্ট করছে না, তেমনি বিএনপির অবস্থানের ভেতরেও অস্পষ্টতা আছে। দফার সংখ্যা বৃদ্ধি করার চেয়ে সাত দফার মাঝে তাদের মূল দাবিগুলো সরকারের কাছে পরিষ্কার করে উপস্থাপন করা উচিত এবং নিজেদের অবস্থান আরও স্পষ্ট, দৃঢ় এবং শক্তিশালী ভাবে তুলে ধরা উচিত, যেন তাতে কোন অস্পষ্টতা খুঁজে পাওয়া না যায়।”

[“Like the regime, BNP too is not making its position clear before everybody. Among their seven points, they should underline the basic points like lift of emergency, autocratic amendment of RPO etc. They should state their demands more adamantly, more confidently so that nobody finds any obscurity in there.”]

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“যে সরকার নিজে দূর্নীতির বিরুদ্ধে লড়াইর কথা বলে, অনিয়মের বিরুদ্ধে অবস্থানের কথা বলে, তাদের নিজেদের অবস্থা এতো ঠুনকো কেন সে বিষয়ে দেশের মানুষ স্পষ্টত বিভ্রান্ত। নতুন গণপ্রতিনিধিত্ব আইনের মাধ্যমে সরকারের সাত উপদেষ্টার নিয়োগলাভ অবৈধ হয়ে পড়েছে। দূর্নীতিবিরোধী, অনিয়মবিরোধী সুন্দর সুন্দর কথা বলে এই সরকারের ক্যাবিনেটের সত্তর ভাগই যদি আবৈধ হয়, তাহলে আমরা কোথায় যাবো? দেশের সংবিধানের এত অবহেলা কেন?”

[“The regime which earned its primitive moral ground by citing their battle against corruption and misappropriation, has amended the RPOs in such a way where their own cabinet now has 7 out of 10 appointments turned to completely illegal. Seven of the ten advisers have now no lawfulness to remain in the post. Why the constitution is so brutally ignored?”]

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“নির্বাচন কোন মহাসড়কে তো নেইই, কোন মাঝারি আকারের সড়কেও নেই, এবং এই নির্বাচনে যে শেষমেষ কোন কানাগলিতে গিয়ে পৌছোয়, সে-ই এখন দেখবার বিষয়।”

[“Election is never in a highway; rather it’s not even on an ordinary downtown street. It’s heading towards a dead end."]

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“দেশের মানুষের বোঝা উচিত, দেশের রাজনীতিবিদদের উপলব্ধি আসা উচিত, যে আঠারোই ডিসেম্বার আর যাই হোক, একটি সুষ্ঠু এবং পার্টিসিপেটরি নির্বাচনে অনুষ্ঠান কোন ক্রমেই এবং কোন ক্রমেই সম্ভব নয়।”

[“The people of Bangladesh should come by the realization and our politicians to realize this unbreakable fact that no free, fair and participatory election is possible to carry out on December 18, 2008, no way”]

Everyday is Mother’s Day

Quite Explains The Present of Ours

Is Bangladesh

Heading Towards

a Political Uncertainty?

By Badrud Doza

The advisers completed their pre-dialogue talk with the political parties. The talk includes the pro-Khaleda faction of BNP with whom Election Commission didn’t like to sit. The Advisers talked among themselves and made a ‘synthesis’ of the pre-dialogue to present to the Chief Adviser. It is said that the chief adviser will address the nation but the moment yet not come.

In the mean time, AL wanted to stage nationwide hunger strike by its workers to demand the release of SK. Hasina. But the government didn’t permit it citing the state of emergency in the country. AL decided to stage the hunger strike in the capital Dhaka.

In the AL, once known as reformists are advocating for the presence of Hasina in the dialogue and demanding release of him.

On the other hand, Delwar led pro-Khaleda faction is demanding the resignation of CEC, release of Khaleda and not accepting any election under the present government. The other faction of BNP that led by Saifur Rahman is also demanding the release of Khaleda and is telling that without Khaleda, there will be no meaningful dialogue with the government and there will be no meaningful election.

Suransit Sengupta yesterday proposed for the inclusion of Army in the dialogue which was ejected y Matiya Chowdhury today.

Women’s Affairs Adviser Rasheda K Chowdhury said today in a meeting that for materializing the ‘Woman’s Development Policy’, social forces should cooperate with the political forces. In reaction, the Islamists are also organizing movement against the implementation of the policy.

All these means that no national consensus has so far developed among the political parties and the government. Professor Mujaffar Ahmed told recently that the campeign against corruption has been deminished. Is government compromising on the issue of corruption?

Mr. Anwar Chowdhury, the departing British Ambassador, in an interview said that UK government will not support an Army regime in Bangladesh.

In the backdrop of the price hike and electricity crisis, the conflict of the political arena is creating an uncertainty in the minds of the people. But is this uncertainty a calculated one or this is a mere the outcome of the natural forces that have developed from the conflicts of different interest groups in our politics.

The uncertainity increased more with the failure of the government to find out a safe exit for themselves and also for the failure of the governemnt to conclud much publicised corruption cases, at least some of them by this time.

An ordinary citizen

*  *  *  *  *

Mr. Badrud Doza is a vibrant blogger who keeps writing on political issues & national interests of Bangladesh in his blog An Ordinary Citizen.

Putin’s Last Week At Office Starts

Dmitri Medvedev. The new president to take office on 7 May.

Earlier this year, I wrote a post Men With Magic Scepters In Hand, where I named three four persons being most loyal to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. They were FSB Chief Nikolay Patrushev, the then Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, 1^st Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev and the CDRPA Chief Alexander Beglov. When Medvedev was named as a candidate of President-elect, I was little surprised because I expected this for Patrushev. Many can ask why I haven’t thought Ivanov fit for this, but that’s a different chemistry. My choice for the new President-elect was Nikolay Patrushev. As an FSB Chief turned to President, he could be as good as Putin. But I think the rise of Medvedev, Putin has let the indication appear that Russia wants nothing stern in near future. After getting elected on March, Medvedev told he will be doing everything required for his country. This was may be to answer a Sky News correspondent who wanted to know what would be the role of Vladimir Putin to President Dmitri Medvedev.

The 1st Deputy Prime Minister has been the choice of Vladimir Putin, whom he will observe from now on as the chief of the United Russia Party. From left: Nikolay Patrushev (Chief of FSB), Dmitri Medvedev (1st Deputy Prime Minister), Sergei Ivanov (Minister of Defense)

So, the countdown now has begun. Vladimir Putin will remain the president of Russian Federation just for next seven days. From then, this is expected to be the start point of a new era of the RPA. The expectation to Medvedev is important because Vladimir Putin however has failed to end up with a considerably good reputation of a gentle president.

The assassination of journalist & human rights activist Anna Politkovskaya, allegedly conceptualized and aided by the Russian Government as well as Vladimir Putin in 2006. This issue could be argued. But the poisoning to death of a Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko in 2007, who was one of investigators of Anna’s murder, let all allegations against Putin reappear with doubled force. Litvinenko was a critic of Putin administration claiming Putin is turning Russia into a police state. Three weeks before dying, Litvinenko was poisoned by a former KGB agent Andrei Lugovoi. That doesn’t say that the Russian authority is responsible for the poisoning because Lugovoi was ‘once’ KGB. But later when Scotland Yard sent request for the cooperation of Russia to confirm their investigation efforts on Lugovoi, Russia formally declined that request due to barriers of Russian constituency. At that time, Putin took a little bit on British authority by saying, “It’s not our constitution that should be changed, it’s their brain.” Ultimately, the assassination of Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, and the allegations on Putin’s close guy as Andrei Lugovoi, led the matter to be a scandalous flap, which ultimately left Andrei Lugovoi as one of the villains. Lugovoi receives unquestionable protection from the Russian authority as well as Putin administration from the most wanted list of British Security authority.

From British point of view, this whole matter was very suspicious and may be Russian authority is directly & indirectly responsible for these multiple murders & attempts by poisoning. From Russian point of view, especially considering statements & demonstrations of Nashi, British authority has engineered the murders of several Russian citizens to malign the reputation of Putin administration. But later, two journalists of British Daily Mail Stephen Wright and David Williams, Alexander Litvinenko was an MI6 agent under direct supervision of MI6/SIS Chief Sir John Scarlett. According to ‘unnamed intelligence & political sources”, they claimed Litvinenko received £2000 per month & was directly recruited by Director Scarlett.

Considering the retrospect, Dmitri Medvedev sounds much like a choice to go ahead with more legitimacy than Russian people experienced in Putin era. Russia is always found to be ran be a unclear parallel government formed by the security community of the country. Nikolay Patrushev could be a good leader to this kind of formation. But, Medvedev, in my views, is a more academic figure than to lead a country like Russia which has been led by Joseph Stalin, Nikita Khrushchev, Alexei Kosygin as well as Vladimir Putin. What did he mean by “will be doing everything required for his country”, will be visible after seven days from now.

Read More:

Short biography of Vladimir Putin

Short biography of Dmitri Medvedev

Assassination of Anna Politkovskaya

Mysterious Death of Alexander Litvinenko

Short biography of Andrei Lugovoi